Borrell Associates, which has a good reputation for its market projections for newspapers, has just released some much anticipated news for American newspapers: “We expect a 2.4 percent rebound in newspaper advertising in 2010, and continued single-digit increases over the next several years.” So, after a long economic slump, U.S. publishers now have something to look forward to.
On 7 August, Gordon Borrell, founder and CEO of Borrell Associates, released some projections for newspaper advertising for the next four years (see graphic below). “By 2014, newspaper ad revenues will be up about 8.7 percent over 2009 levels. While national newspaper advertising will do just fine, we foresee the greatest growth in local print – going from US$ 8.9 billion this year to US$ 10.1 billion, a 13.4 percent increase,” Borrell writes.
Newspaper advertising could reach US$ 30 billion by 2014, but is unlikely to return to the US$ 55 billion level that it saw earlier this decade. “The latest mediamorphosis of newspapers is almost complete. This once-fat, gray caterpillar that we knew as the 'major daily newspaper' is turning into a smaller, more delicate, colorful local magazine, with fair prospects for growth. The smaller newspapers are firmly entrenched in their niche of providing rich local content that people seem to prefer in print – rather than screen – format. Our local newspaper, the Virginia Gazette in Williamsburg, is actually growing circulation and is thick with advertising supplements,” says Borrell.